EIA forecasts crude oil prices will increase through 2024 as demand rises above supply

We forecast higher crude oil prices in the second half of 2023 and into 2024 in our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) because of moderate but persistent inventory drawdowns. Inventory drawdowns take place when demand for a commodity is greater than the supply of that commodity. We expect production cuts from OPEC members and forecast higher petroleum consumption will lead to an average inventory drawdown of 0.4 million barrels per day (b/d) between July 2023 and the end of 2024. More »

U.S. gasoline inventories are rising, driven by East Coast market dynamics

U.S. gasoline inventories have been rising following a low this year of 216 million barrels (8% below the previous five-year average) on May 26. East Coast (PADD 1) gasoline inventories account for most of the national inventory growth despite refinery unit outages that are limiting regional gasoline production. Relatively high gasoline prices on the East Coast and falling freight rates are driving U.S. imports from Europe, which is increasing regional inventories. More »

Natural gas storage injections exceed five-year average so far this summer

Working natural gas inventories totaled 2,930 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in the Lower 48 states as of July 7, according to our Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report. U.S. natural gas production has outpaced demand, resulting in more natural gas injected into storage midway through the 2023 refill season (April 1–October 31). Since April 1, net injections into natural gas storage have exceeded the five-year (2018–22) average by 6% (66 Bcf), and working natural gas inventories have reached 69% of working gas capacity so far this refill season. More »

As Texas wind and solar capacity increase, energy curtailments are also likely to rise

We project combined wind and solar generating capacity in Texas's power market will double by 2035, fueling a growing renewable share of total generation. However, without upgrades to the state's transmission system, wind and solar generation will increasingly be curtailed, according to our recent analysis, A Case Study of Transmission Limits on Renewables Growth in Texas. More »

Crude oil and natural gas proved reserves held by public companies fell slightly in 2022

International proved crude oil and natural gas reserves held by 187 publicly traded global exploration and production (E&P) companies declined by 5.6 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) in 2022, or 2%, according to data from the companies' annual financial reports. In 2020, proved reserves held by these public companies had dropped by 9% due primarily to the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, but in 2021, proved reserves increased by 9% from 2020. More »

Two counties in New Mexico account for 29% of Permian Basin crude oil production

In southeastern New Mexico, horizontal wells in the Lea and Eddy counties drove much of the recent growth in Permian Basin crude oil output. Output from horizontal wells in the two counties accounted for 29% of all crude oil production in the Permian in the first quarter of 2023, averaging 1.7 million barrels per day (b/d), according to data from Enverus. The Permian Basin is the largest oil-producing basin in the United States, spanning 66 counties in southeastern New Mexico and western Texas. More »