Resumption of Iran sanctions adds uncertainty to crude oil and gasoline price forecasts

EIA’s October 2018 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecasts Brent crude oil spot prices, which averaged $79 per barrel (b) in September, to average $81/b in the fourth quarter of 2018, before falling to an average of $75/b in 2019. However, the effects of the U.S. withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the re-imposition of sanctions on Iran, and the potential response from members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other countries pose significant uncertainty to the forecast. More »