Coming changes in marine fuel sulfur limits will affect global oil markets

International regulations limiting sulfur in fuels for ocean-going vessels, set to take effect in January 2020, have implications for vessel operators, refiners, and global oil markets. Stakeholders will respond to these regulations in different ways, increasing uncertainty for crude oil and petroleum product price formation in both the short and long term. More »

South Korea stopped importing condensate from Iran before receiving sanctions waivers

South Korea, the world’s leading importer of condensates, has sought alternatives to partially offset declines in imports of Iranian condensates during the past few months, particularly in light of U.S. sanctions on Iranian exports of crude oil and condensate. South Korea purchased close to half a million barrels per day (b/d) of condensates in 2017, accounting for more than 25% of global condensate trade. In the first seven months of 2018, 38% of South Korea’s condensate imports came from Iran. South Korea ceased importing Iranian condensates in August. Subsequently, the United States granted South Korea an exemption to import about 200,000 b/d of condensates from Iran for 180 days. More »

For one week in November, the U.S. was a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products

During the week ending November 30, 2018, the United States exported more crude oil and petroleum products than it imported for the first time in weekly data going back to 1991. From November 24–30, the United States exported an estimated record 3.2 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil as well as an estimated 5.8 million b/d of petroleum products such as distillate fuel oil, motor gasoline, and propane. More »

Changes in coal sector led to less SO2 and NOx emissions from electric power industry

Annual U.S. electric power industry emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) have declined by 88% and 76%, respectively, between their peaks in 1997 and 2017. During this period, coal-fired generation was responsible for 90% of SO2 emissions and 76% of NOx emissions from the U.S. electric power industry. Among other factors, declining coal-fired generation and implementation of environmental regulations under the Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) of 1990 have both contributed to the decrease in electric power industry SO2 and NOx emissions. More »

U.S. liquefied natural gas export capacity to more than double by the end of 2019

EIA projects that U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity will reach 8.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) by the end of 2019, making it the third largest in the world behind Australia and Qatar. Currently, U.S. LNG export capacity stands at 3.6 Bcf/d, and it is expected to end the year at 4.9 Bcf/d as two new liquefaction units (called trains) become operational. More »

November U.S. natural gas prices increased beyond previous market expectations

On November 23, the natural gas spot price at the Henry Hub in Louisiana was $4.70 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), the highest price since a temporary spike in January 2018, and before that, the highest price since June 2014. The relatively sudden increase in prices exceeded the expectation of many market participants, based on the prices and volatility of futures and options contracts at the beginning of November. Prices have come down slightly in the past week, but they remain at a higher level than during much of the past four years. More »

EPA finalizes Renewable Fuel Standard for 2019, reflecting cellulosic biofuel shortfalls

On November 30, 2018, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued a final rule for the 2019 Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program, with the total U.S. renewable fuel volume requirement set 3% higher than the 2018 mandate, but nearly 30% lower than the statutory volume standards set forth by the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA 2007). Similar to previous years, EPA exercised its cellulosic waiver authority to decrease volume standards for cellulosic biofuels because growth has been slower than Congress had envisioned in EISA, passed more than a decade ago. More »

U.S. coal consumption in 2018 expected to be the lowest in 39 years

EIA expects total U.S. coal consumption in 2018 to fall to 691 million short tons (MMst), a 4% decline from 2017 and the lowest level since 1979. U.S. coal consumption has been falling since its peak in 2007, and EIA forecasts that 2018 coal consumption will be 437 MMst (44%) lower than 2007 levels, mainly driven by declines in coal use in the electric power sector. More »

Pipeline constraints, refinery maintenance push Western Canadian crude oil prices lower

Planned maintenance at several large refineries in the Midwest has decreased the volume of crude oil processed in the region, which has resulted in lower prices of Western Canadian Select (WCS), a crude oil typically processed in the Midwest. WCS crude oil is typically priced lower than other crude oils because of differences in crude oil quality, but increasing production of WCS and pipeline capacity constraints in Western Canada have resulted in even lower prices of WCS compared with crude oil benchmarks such as Brent. More »