U.S. NGPL production continues to grow, driven by production in East and Southwest regions

In EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2019 (AEO2019) Reference case, natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) production grows by 32% between 2018 and 2050 to 5.8 million barrels per day (b/d). Most of the increase in production is in the East, specifically the Appalachian Basin, and the Southwest, specifically the Permian Basin. Given projected crude oil and natural gas prices, producers are expected to focus on liquids-rich plays, and NGPL-to-gas ratios are highest in these areas. In addition, increased petrochemical feedstock demand spurs higher ethane recovery. More »

The United States is expected to export more energy than it imports by 2020

EIA projects that, for the first time since the 1950s, the United States will export more energy than it imports by 2020 as increases in crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas plant liquids production outpace growth in U.S. energy consumption. Different assumptions about crude oil prices and resource extraction affect how long EIA projects that the United States will export more energy than it imports. The United States has been a net exporter of coal and coke for decades, began exporting more natural gas than it imports in 2017, and is projected to export more petroleum and other liquids than it imports within the decade. More »

U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions increased in 2018 but will likely fall in 2019 and 2020

According to EIA’s recently released Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) estimates, energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions increased by 2.8% in 2018 but will decrease in 2019 and 2020. The 2018 increase is the largest in energy-related CO2 emissions since 2010. More »

In 2018, U.S. coal production declined as exports and Appalachian region prices rose

EIA estimates that total 2018 U.S. coal production was 755 million short tons (MMst), 20 MMst less than in 2017 and 36% less than in the previous decade. In 2018, coal prices rose in three of the five major coal-producing regions, particularly the Northern and Central Appalachian regions. Although U.S. coal exports increased by about 10 MMst in 2018, volumes were not great enough to offset the decline in U.S. coal consumption, resulting in declining coal production. More »

EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2019 projects growing oil, natural gas, renewables production

EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2019 (AEO2019), which will be released later this morning, includes projections of U.S. energy markets through 2050 based on a Reference case and six side cases that include different assumptions regarding prices, economic activity, and technology and resource estimates. AEO2019 projects continued development of U.S. shale and tight oil and natural gas resources. Natural gas and natural gas plant liquids (NGPLs) experience the highest production growth of all fossil fuels, and they account for almost one-third of cumulative U.S. liquids production through the 2050 projection period. More »

EIA’s new interactive New England dashboard tracks energy capacity constraints

To increase customer understanding of weather-related energy issues in New England, EIA now has an interactive dashboard showing energy market conditions in that region. More »

EIA now publishes oil stocks at power plant level

EIA now publishes data on monthly and yearly plant-level oil stocks at electricity-generating power plants. Power plants that burn petroleum liquids (such as distillate or residual fuel oils) are generally used for short periods during times of peak electricity demand. Plants keep oil stocks on hand so they can be prepared to dispatch at the times of peak demand, such as during hot summers and cold winters when coal and natural gas supplies decrease. Otherwise, petroleum-fired power plants operate mostly intermittently, at low capacity factors, because of the high price of petroleum relative to other fuels, air pollution restrictions, and lower efficiencies of their aging generating technology. More »

EIA forecasts renewables will be fastest growing source of electricity generation

EIA expects non-hydroelectric renewable energy resources such as solar and wind will be the fastest growing source of U.S. electricity generation for at least the next two years. EIA’s January 2019 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecasts that electricity generation from utility-scale solar generating units will grow by 10% in 2019 and by 17% in 2020. According to the January STEO, wind generation will grow by 12% and 14% during the next two years. EIA forecasts total U.S. electricity generation across all fuels will fall by 2% this year and then show very little growth in 2020. More »

EIA expects relatively flat natural gas prices, continued record production through 2020

EIA’s January 2019 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) expects several U.S. natural gas market trends from 2018 to continue into 2019 and 2020, including relatively stable Henry Hub natural gas prices and increasing natural gas production and exports. According to the STEO, total U.S. natural gas consumption is expected to increase slightly through 2020, with increases in the electric and industrial sectors offsetting decreases in the residential and commercial sectors. More »

EIA forecasts world crude oil prices to rise gradually, averaging $65 per barrel in 2020

EIA’s January Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts that world benchmark Brent crude oil will average $61 per barrel (b) in 2019 and $65/b in 2020, an increase from the end of 2018, but overall it will remain lower than the 2018 average of $71/b. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices were $8/b lower than Brent prices in December 2018, and EIA expects this difference to narrow to $4/b in the fourth quarter of 2019 and throughout 2020. More »

Changes in marine fuel sulfur limits will put temporary upward pressure on diesel margins

The January 2019 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), released at noon today, for the first time includes analysis of the effect that upcoming changes to marine fuel sulfur specifications will have on crude oil and petroleum product markets. Beginning January 1, 2020, the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) new regulations limit the sulfur content in marine fuels used by ocean-going vessels to 0.5% by volume, a reduction from the previous limit of 3.5%. The change in fuel specification is expected to put upward pressure on diesel margins and modest upward pressure on crude oil prices in late 2019 and early 2020. EIA’s analysis indicates that the price effects that result from implementing this new standard will be most acute in 2020 and will diminish over time. More »

Natural gas-burning power plant operations vary during periods of cold weather

Power generation in New England and New York is largely dependent on natural gas, which accounts for more than half of the region’s electricity generating capacity. About 58% of New England’s natural gas capacity has dual-fuel capability, meaning it can switch to other fuels such as petroleum-based fuels. Data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) continuous emissions monitoring system (CEMS) reveals how certain plants in New England and New York switch between fuels in certain situations. More »

Iraq’s oil production has nearly doubled over the past decade

Crude oil production in Iraq averaged 4.5 million barrels per day (b/d) through August 2018, up from 4.4 million b/d in 2017. Iraq’s crude oil production has been steadily increasing since declines in the late 1990s and early 2000s, and has nearly doubled over the past decade. More »

New electric generating capacity in 2019 will come from renewables and natural gas

According to EIA’s latest inventory of electric generators, 23.7 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity additions and 8.3 GW of capacity retirements are expected for the U.S. electric power sector in 2019. The utility-scale capacity additions consist primarily of wind (46%), natural gas (34%), and solar photovoltaics (18%), with the remaining 2% consisting primarily of other renewables and battery storage capacity. More »

The Middle East, Africa, and Asia now drive nearly all global energy consumption growth

Energy consumption in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa continues to grow rapidly, with about 20% growth in each region between 2010 and 2016, according to newly available data in EIA’s International Energy Statistics database. In particular, energy consumption has been increasing in the Middle East and Africa, driven by economic growth, increased access to energy markets, and quickly growing populations. Energy consumption in Asia continues to grow even as energy consumption in China declined between 2015 and 2016. More »

Wholesale power prices were generally higher in 2018, with both winter and summer spikes

Wholesale electricity prices during 2018 at major trading hubs in the United States were generally higher than in 2017. Wholesale prices in 2018 ranged from 14% higher than in 2017 in the area served by the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) to 60% higher in the ERCOT electricity market serving most of Texas. Monthly wholesale electricity prices were also more volatile in 2018 than in 2017, seeing spikes during the winter and summer months. More »

Energy commodity prices fell significantly in the last quarter of 2018

After increasing 25% from January through the beginning of October in 2018, the spot energy index in the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) ended the year 21% lower than at the beginning of the year. The S&P GSCI is a weighted average of commodity prices intended to reflect global commodity production quantities and futures contracts’ trading volumes. Although all components of the S&P GSCI fell in 2018, the S&P GSCI energy index fell more than any other sub-index. Steep declines in crude oil and petroleum product prices in the fourth quarter of 2018 were responsible for the decline in the S&P GSCI energy index. More »

Natural gas prices, production, consumption, and exports increased in 2018

In 2018, the average annual Henry Hub natural gas spot price increased to $3.16 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), up 15 cents from the 2017 average. Prices increased gradually through much of the year, with significant price increases during October and November, before declining at the end of December. Growing U.S. production and low temperatures during the winter months supported increased natural gas consumption through 2018. In addition, continued increases of U.S. natural gas exports by pipeline to Mexico and additional liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity that came online during the year resulted in the United States exporting more natural gas than it imported for the second year in a row. More »

U.S. average retail gasoline prices ended the year lower than they started

U.S. regular retail gasoline prices averaged $2.72 per gallon (gal) in 2018, 30 cents/gal (13%) higher than in 2017 and 57 cents/gal higher than in 2016. However, a rapid price decline beginning in October led to U.S. average regular gasoline prices ending the year lower than they began for the first time since 2015. In 5 of the 10 cities for which EIA collects weekly retail price data, gasoline prices exceeded $3.00/gal at least once in 2018. More »

Crude oil prices end the year lower than they began the year

Brent crude oil averaged $72 per barrel (b) in 2018, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) averaged $65/b in 2018. The prices for both crude oils finished the year lower than they began it. Brent and WTI each hit their highest prices during the year on October 3 at $86/b and $76/b, respectively. Prices for each benchmark fell quickly after that, and on December 24, Brent reached an annual low of $50/b and WTI reached an annual low of $43/b. More »