Risk of oil supply disruptions can have an immediate effect on oil prices

Crude oil supply disruptions—realized or expected—can have large and immediate effects on crude oil prices. Two recent events, the September 2019 attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais (which disrupted crude oil volumes) and the January 2020 military operations in Iraq (which did not disrupt crude oil volumes), led to relatively large daily price changes and intraday price movements—movements within single trading days. Intraday prices of front-month Brent crude oil futures for the two events followed a broadly similar path at first: an upward movement as market participants reacted to the news and a downward movement as new information was incorporated. More »

EIA expects U.S. electricity generation from renewables to soon surpass nuclear and coal

In the latest long-term projections, the U.S Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects electricity generation from renewable sources such as wind and solar to surpass nuclear and coal by 2021 and to surpass natural gas in 2045. In the Annual Energy Outlook 2020 (AEO2020) Reference case, the share of renewables in the U.S. electricity generation mix increases from 19% in 2019 to 38% in 2050. More »

EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2020 projects consumption growing more slowly than production

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release updated projections of future U.S. energy production and use in its Annual Energy Outlook 2020 (AEO2020) today at 11:00 a.m. ET. The AEO2020 Reference case, which serves as a baseline for exploring the effects of different assumptions about the economy, policy, and technology, projects renewables to be the fastest-growing source of electricity generation through 2050, driven by continued declines in the capital costs for solar and wind technologies. Slow growth in U.S. energy consumption, as a result of continued increases in energy efficiency, and technologically enabled growth in domestic oil and natural gas production lead the United States to remain a net energy exporter through 2050. More »

U.S. biomass-based diesel tax credit renewed through 2022 in government spending bill

The U.S. government spending bill signed into law in late December 2019 included several provisions related to federal energy programs. Among these provisions was the reinstatement of a $1.00 per gallon biodiesel mixture credit, commonly referred to as the biodiesel tax credit (BTC). The BTC applies to both biodiesel and renewable diesel (referred to as biomass-based diesel) through 2022. The credit was also retroactively applied to 2018 and 2019. More »

EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production will keep growing through 2021, but more slowly

In the January 2020 update of its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that U.S. crude oil production will average 13.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2020, a 9% increase from 2019 production levels, and 13.7 million b/d in 2021, a 3% increase from 2020. More »

U.S. crude oil production efficiency continues year-over-year improvements

U.S. oil production from tight formations increased in 2019, accounting for 64% of total U.S. crude oil production. This share grew because of the increasing productivity of new wells that were brought online during 2019. Since 2007, the average first full month of oil production from new wells in regions tracked by the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) has increased. The growing initial production rates have helped oil production from tight formations to increase despite the slowdowns in drilling activity when oil prices fell between 2015 and 2016. Since 2017, recovering oil prices and more efficient production from new wells have helped producers cover costs of drilling, production, and the development of new technologies. More »

EIA expects U.S. net natural gas exports to almost double by 2021

In its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), released on January 14, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that U.S. natural gas exports will exceed natural gas imports by an average 7.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2020 (2.0 Bcf/d higher than in 2019) and 8.9 Bcf/d in 2021. Growth in U.S. net exports is led primarily by increases in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and pipeline exports to Mexico. Net natural gas exports more than doubled in 2019, compared with 2018, and EIA expects that they will almost double again by 2021 from 2019 levels. More »

EIA projects less than a quarter of the world’s electricity generated from coal by 2050

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) International Energy Outlook 2019 (IEO2019), global electric power generation from renewable sources will increase more than 20% throughout the projection period (2018–2050), providing almost half of the world’s electricity generation in 2050. In that same period, global coal-fired generation will decrease 13%, representing only 22% of the generation mix in 2050. EIA projects that worldwide electricity generation will grow by 1.8% per year through 2050. More »

EIA forecasts crude oil prices will fall in the first half of 2020, then rise through 2021

In the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA forecasts that the Brent crude oil spot price will average $65 per barrel (b) in 2020 and $68/b in 2021 and that the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot price will average $59/b in 2020 and $62/b in 2021. More »

EIA expects U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions to decrease annually through 2021

In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), released on January 14, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts year-over-year decreases in energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions through 2021. After decreasing by 2.1% in 2019, energy-related CO2 emissions will decrease by 2.0% in 2020 and again by 1.5% in 2021 for a third consecutive year of declines. More »

EIA forecasts slower growth in natural gas-fired generation while renewable energy rises

In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), released on January 14, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that generation from natural gas-fired power plants in the electric power sector will grow by 1.3% in 2020. This growth rate would be the slowest growth rate in natural gas generation since 2017. EIA forecasts that generation from nonhydropower renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind, will grow by 15% in 2020—the fastest rate in four years. Forecast generation from coal-fired power plants declines by 13% in 2020. More »

EIA expects lower natural gas prices in 2020 as production outpaces demand

In its January 2020 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that average U.S. natural gas prices will be 9% lower in 2020 than in 2019. EIA expects lower natural gas prices will be the result of continued production growth primarily in response to the following factors: More »

New electric generating capacity in 2020 will come primarily from wind and solar

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest inventory of electric generators, EIA expects 42 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity additions to start commercial operation in 2020. Solar and wind represent almost 32 GW, or 76%, of these additions. Wind accounts for the largest share of these additions at 44%, followed by solar and natural gas at 32% and 22%, respectively. The remaining 2% comes from hydroelectric generators and battery storage. More »

U.S. oil and natural gas proved reserves and production set new records in 2018

U.S. oil and natural gas proved reserves had another record-breaking year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) U.S. Crude Oil and Natural Gas Proved Reserves, Year-End 2018 report, released in December 2019. U.S. proved reserves of crude oil and lease condensate rose to 47.1 billion barrels in 2018, a 12% increase compared with the previous record set at year-end 2017 of 42 billion barrels. U.S. proved reserves of natural gas rose to 504.5 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), a 9% increase compared with the record level set in 2017 of 464.4 Tcf. The growth in oil and natural gas proved reserves was driven by an increase in 2018 oil and natural gas prices. More »

Wholesale electricity prices were generally lower in 2019, except in Texas

Wholesale electricity prices at several major hubs were generally lower in 2019 than in 2018, except in Texas. Record-high electricity demand in the summer led to much higher 2019 wholesale electricity prices in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) electricity market. More »

Natural gas prices in 2019 were the lowest in the past three years

In 2019, natural gas spot prices at the national benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana averaged $2.57 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), about 60 cents per MMBtu lower than in 2018 and the lowest annual average price since 2016. Lower natural gas prices in 2019 supported higher consumption—particularly in the electric generation sector—and higher natural gas exports. Continued growth in domestic production of natural gas also supported lower natural gas prices throughout the year. More »

U.S. average retail gasoline prices in 2019 were slightly lower than in 2018

U.S. regular retail gasoline prices averaged $2.60 per gallon (gal) in 2019, 11 cents/gal (4%) lower than in 2018. Gasoline prices rose steadily during the first quarter of the year, rising from $2.24 on January 7 to $2.90/gal on May 6, before gradually declining through the rest of the year. Because the cost of crude oil accounts for about 52% of retail gasoline's final cost, the price of gasoline generally follows movements in crude oil prices, which followed a similar price path during 2019. More »

Crude oil prices were generally lower in 2019 than in 2018

The price of Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, averaged $64 per barrel (b) in 2019, $7/b lower than its 2018 average. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, the U.S. benchmark, averaged $57/b in 2019, $7/b lower than in 2018. More »

Energy commodity prices rose more than other goods in 2019

The energy portion of the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) ended 2019 22% higher than it began the year. Price indexes for other commodity types also increased in 2019, but not as much as the energy commodity index. More »

EIA projects nearly 50% increase in world energy usage by 2050, led by growth in Asia

In its newly released International Energy Outlook 2019 (IEO2019) Reference case, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that world energy consumption will grow by nearly 50% between 2018 and 2050. Most of this growth comes from countries that are not in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and this growth is focused in regions where strong economic growth is driving demand, particularly in Asia. More »

U.S. electricity generation from renewables surpassed coal in April

In April 2019, U.S. monthly electricity generation from renewable sources exceeded coal-fired generation for the first time based on data in EIA’s Electric Power Monthly. Renewable sources provided 23% of total electricity generation to coal’s 20%. This outcome reflects both seasonal factors as well as long-term increases in renewable generation and decreases in coal generation. EIA includes utility-scale hydropower, wind, solar, geothermal, and biomass in its definition of renewable electricity generation. More »