U.S. natural gas production and LNG exports will likely grow through 2050 in AEO2023

In our Annual Energy Outlook 2023 (AEO2023) Reference case, we project U.S. natural gas production to increase 15% and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to increase 152% between 2022 and 2050. We expect natural gas production to rise to 42.1 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) by 2050. Production growth is largely driven by U.S. LNG exports, which we expect to rise to 10 Tcf by 2050. Natural gas production growth on the Gulf Coast and in the Southwest reflects increased activity in the Haynesville Formation and Permian Basin, which are close to infrastructure connecting natural gas supply to growing LNG export facilities. More »

U.S. coal shipments increased slightly in 2022 as power plants replenished stockpiles

The amount of coal received by power plants in the United States has largely declined over the past decade as coal-fired electricity generation has fallen and many coal-fired power plants have closed. However, slightly more coal was shipped to U.S. power plants in 2022 than in 2021 even though coal-fired generation fell by nearly 8% in 2022. The 8-million-ton increase in coal shipments came as power plants replenished their coal stocks, which had been drawn down in 2021. More »

Less natural gas was withdrawn from storage this winter than in the last seven

Withdrawals of natural gas from U.S. underground storage facilities totaled 1,707 billion cubic feet (Bcf) during the 2022–23 heating season (November 1 to March 31), after subtracting occasional injections, according to our Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR). This recent heating season's natural gas withdrawals were the lowest since the 2015–16 winter heating season. After entering the heating season at a 3% deficit to the five-year start-of-winter average, working natural gas in underground storage facilities in the Lower 48 states totaled 1,830 Bcf as of March 31, 2023, exceeding the previous five-year average (2018–22) for that time of year by 19% (294 Bcf). Continued growth in U.S. natural gas production and reduced space heating consumption due to relatively mild winter temperatures accounted for less natural gas withdrawn this winter—despite increased use in electric generation. More »

2018 CBECS used new technology to virtually list buildings and collect data

The Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) is our sample survey about energy consumption in commercial buildings. Throughout its more than 40-year history, the CBECS has adapted to change. The most recent changes include using satellite images to create a sampling frame, which we use in the process to select the buildings we survey, and giving respondents an option to complete the survey online. More »

Petroleum production in Mexico stabilizes after years of decline

After nearly two decades of steady declines, Mexico's petroleum and liquid fuels production has remained stable since 2019, and we forecast production in Mexico will remain relatively flat through 2024. Private companies have increased petroleum production in Mexico over the past five years. In 2022, Mexican government data show that private production contributed more than 5% of Mexico's total, a large increase from the 0.5% oil contribution that private companies produced in 2016. In December 2013, Mexico changed its constitution to allow for private petroleum production for the first time since 1938, according to information from the U.S. International Trade Administration. Previously, Pemex, Mexico's national oil company, was the sole petroleum producer in the country. More »

Forecast retail gasoline prices for summer 2023 will be lower than last summer

In our April Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we estimate that U.S. retail gasoline prices this summer for regular-grade gasoline will average about $3.50 per gallon (gal), or about 80 cents/gal less than the price last summer, which was the highest price since summer 2014. The summer average includes retail prices from April through September. Lower forecast crude oil prices compared with last year are one of the primary reasons we forecast lower gasoline prices this summer. We estimate gasoline prices (despite being lower than last year) will increase slightly from current levels later in the summer because of seasonal factors and rising crude oil prices. More »

Solar distributed generation capacity in Brazil is growing rapidly

Brazil's growth in distributed generation capacity from renewable resources—especially solar—has increased rapidly since the country implemented net metering policies in 2012. As of March 31, 2023, home and building owners have installed more than 1.8 million renewable distributed generation systems in Brazil, totaling about 19 gigawatts (GW) of capacity, the vast majority of which is solar, according to the Brazilian Electricity Regulatory Agency (ANEEL). More »

Pennsylvania natural gas production changed little in 2022

In 2022, Pennsylvania accounted for 19% of U.S. marketed natural gas production, with more natural gas produced than in any other state except Texas. Marketed natural gas production in Pennsylvania fell slightly by 2% to average 20.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2022 after reaching an annual high of 20.9 Bcf/d in 2021, according to our Natural Gas Monthly. Natural gas production in Pennsylvania comes largely from the Marcellus shale gas play. In 2022, productivity declines and a plateauing of natural gas takeaway capacity resulted in the small decrease in production of 0.4 Bcf/d in Pennsylvania. More »

U.S. electric capacity mix shifts from fossil fuels to renewables in AEO2023

The U.S. power grid nearly doubles in capacity from 2022 to 2050 to meet increasing demand for electric power, and most newly built capacity will be from renewable energy technologies, according to most cases in our Annual Energy Outlook 2023 (AEO2023). Declining capital costs for solar panels, wind turbines, and battery storage, as well as government subsidies such as those included in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), result in renewables becoming increasingly cost effective compared with the alternatives when building new power capacity. Economic growth, paired with rising electrification in end-use sectors, results in stable growth in U.S. electric power demand through 2050. More »

U.S. natural gas consumption reached multiyear lows this past January and February

Mild winter temperatures and reduced natural gas consumption in the residential and commercial sectors drove down overall U.S. natural gas consumption this past January and February, according to our Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). In January 2023, U.S. natural gas consumption averaged 106.8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), its lowest January volume since 2017. February 2023 natural gas consumption averaged 104.5 Bcf/d, its lowest February volume since 2018. More »

U.S. associated natural gas production will likely grow through 2050 in our AEO2023

In our Annual Energy Outlook 2023 (AEO2023), natural gas production from oil formations, known as associated natural gas, grows across most cases through 2050, continuing a long-term trend. In the AEO2023 Reference case, we project that associated natural gas will account for approximately 20% of total U.S. natural gas production over that period, and we examined cases in AEO2023 where it makes up as much as 32% of production. More »

Mild temperatures reduced U.S. household heating fuel consumption last winter

We estimate that U.S. households consumed less heating oil this winter heating season because of warmer-than-expected temperatures than we estimated at the beginning of the winter heating season. Combined with stable heating oil prices, our current estimate of average household heating costs for this winter is lower compared with our forecast in the Winter Fuels Outlook (WFO), a supplement to the October 2022 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Since October, our estimates of heating oil consumption fell by 9% and prices by 2%. More »

EIA explores effects of Inflation Reduction Act on the Annual Energy Outlook

In 2050, we project that total U.S. solar capacity, which includes both utility-scale solar and rooftop solar in the commercial and residential sectors, could range from 532 gigawatts (GW) to 1,399 GW. In our Annual Energy Outlook 2023 (AEO2023), we present 16 scenarios, or cases, that project long-term energy trends in the United States through 2050. More »

Product Highlight: EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook

Our Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) publication provides near-term energy data, analysis, and forecasts. Each month, the STEO provides forecasts from the time of publication through December of the next calendar year. The STEO forecasts consumption, production, trade, and prices across major fuel types and also provides in-depth analysis for crude oil, petroleum products, and natural gas markets. Although its focus is on U.S. energy markets, the STEO also forecasts certain international liquid fuels. More »

U.S. production of petroleum and other liquids to be driven by international demand

Strong continuing international demand for petroleum and other liquids will sustain U.S. production above 2022 levels through 2050, according to most of the cases we examined in our Annual Energy Outlook 2023 (AEO2023). We project that the United States will continue to be an integral part of global oil markets and a significant source of supply in these cases, as increased exports of finished products support U.S. production. More »

U.S. energy consumption increases between 0% and 15% by 2050

Consumption of all forms of energy increases in the United States between 0% and 15% from 2022 to 2050 in our Annual Energy Outlook 2023 (AEO2023). Our projection of growth in U.S. energy consumption is the result of the effects of economic growth, population growth, and increased travel offsetting continued energy efficiency improvements. More »