Venezuela's heavy crude oil output increases are limited following U.S. sanctions relief

The U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) effectively lifted most U.S. sanctions on Venezuela's energy sector on October 18 for six months, paving the way for additional exports of the heavy, sour crude oil the country produces. That type of crude oil has been in short supply and has had significant price increases in recent months. Still, years of underinvestment and mismanagement of Venezuela's energy sector will likely limit crude oil production growth to less than 200,000 barrels per day (b/d) by the end of 2024, requiring more time and investment for additional growth. More »

Average U.S. natural gas bills expected to decrease this winter

We forecast lower average natural gas bills for U.S. consumers that heat their homes primarily with natural gas this winter heating season (November 1 to March 31) compared with last winter. The lower residential winter natural gas expenditures we forecast in the 2023 Winter Fuels Outlook supplement to our October Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) are due, mainly, to lower natural gas prices. The wholesale U.S. natural gas spot price at the national benchmark Henry Hub started last winter heating season averaging $5.66 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) in November. This November, we expect the Henry Hub price to be 45% lower than last year, averaging $3.12/Mcf. More »

High Permian well productivity, crude oil prices drive U.S. natural gas production growth

We estimate that U.S. marketed natural gas production in the Lower 48 states (L48) will grow by 5% (5.0 billion cubic feet per day [Bcf/d]) in 2023 and 2% (1.8 Bcf/d) in 2024 in our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook. Most of the forecast growth comes from the Permian region, where we expect that improved well-level productivity and higher crude oil prices will spur drilling activity that will increase natural gas production. More »

U.S. summer nuclear outages rose in 2023, returning to 2021 levels

Outages of U.S. nuclear generating capacity averaged 3.1 gigawatts (GW) per day during the summer of 2023 (June 1 through August 31), a return to 2021 levels. Capacity outages this past summer exceeded those in summer 2022 by more than 25%. Nuclear capacity outages peaked in June because some reactors were still offline at the end of the spring refueling and maintenance season. June capacity outages averaged 6.1 GW per day and peaked at 8.3 GW. More »

New natural gas-fired capacity additions expected to total 8.6 gigawatts in 2023

So far in 2023, 10 natural gas-fired power plants have come online in the United States with a total of 6.8 gigawatts (GW) of electric generating capacity, according to our Monthly Electric Generator Inventory. By the end of 2023, we expect another six natural gas-fired power plants with another 1.8 GW of capacity to come online, bringing total 2023 capacity additions to 8.6 GW. The additions include both combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) plants and simple-cycle gas turbine (SCGT) plants concentrated near the Gulf Coast and Appalachia natural gas producing regions and in Florida. In 2022, a total of 11 natural gas-fired power plants came online, adding 5.6 GW of capacity. Total natural gas-fired capacity additions increased in both 2022 and 2023 after consecutive declines in the prior three years. More »

EIA expects most U.S. households will spend less on energy this winter

We expect U.S. households that use natural gas and those that are located in the West (regardless of fuel type)—together accounting for more than half of all U.S. households—to spend less on heating this winter compared with last winter. U.S. homes that use heating oil will likely spend slightly more this winter than last winter because the increased heating demand due to a cooler winter in the Northeast, where heating oil is most used, is likely to offset lower heating oil prices. More »